Rita without a doubt will be catastrophic to some. Post-Katrina, her damage will no doubt be mitigated by better preparation, but how much better?
The questions after Katrina devastated NOLA have not really been answered, but you need not wait for someone else to answer them for you, then decide if you believe them.
The science behind tropical meteorology is complicated, but determing when a hurricane becomes a threat and exactly how big a threat is not. The science is done for you by the National Weather Service. All you have to know is what to look for.
A more complete version of Rita by the Numbers is posted on the
ePlurbus Media Community site, including graphics and further explanation.
But after Rita is finished tearing through LA and TX, many will ask if this adminstration handled the disaster appropriately. No doubt, the closer you are to Crawford, the safer you are, but small towns like Beaumont are in trouble. Despite the current forecasts, I still think it's very possible Rita will "wobble" to the north one last time and make landfall more in western LA than TX.
One thing you've almost certainly not heard about on the TV is the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current, where water from the Carribean flows into the gulf, then exits through the Straits of Florida becoming the Gulf Stream.
This surface ocean current, seen here -- the warmest water in the gulf -- is precisely where both Katrina and Rita blew up into Category 5 hurricanes in a matter if hours. Nothing about that was unpredictable. In both cases, the hurricanes' minimum central pressures plummeted, signaling extraordinary measures should be taken to save lives.
By following the progression of a hurricane's central pressure it becomes obvious when to act. I've been charting Rita's CP here: look for yourself. In fact, a full 12-24 hours before entering the loop current, Rita had been steadily and rapidly decreasing pressure. The loop current just lit the match.
When storms this large enter the GOM, people suffer. It is a hard truth about living on our southern coast or the San Andreas fault or near Mount Saint Helens.
But if history tells us anything, we are about to enter another critical phase of disaster management: the CYA, lying, and spin phase. Disassembling versions of events from the mouths of career liars is difficult. But the numbers do not deceive, especially a "slam dunk" like this.
Decide for yourself.